Stanford University researcher Dr. John Ioannidis presented his findings from a recent coronavirus study in Santa Clara, California.
The research project looked at 3,300 people in Santa Clara County in California. The Stanford study revealed that 2.5% to 4.2% of people tested for COVID-19 were positive for antibodies.
The data indicates that there are between 50 to 80-fold more infections in the general population than confirmed cases.
This is a huge development.
In describing his findings Dr. Ioannidis concluded that the coronavirus has an infection fatality rate that is in the same ballpark as seasonal influenza. Dr. Ioannidis added, “It suggests that even though this is a very serious problem, we should not fear. It suggests that we have solid ground to have optimism about the possibility of eventually opening our society and gaining back our lives.”
Dr. Andrew Bostom also published a report Sunday on the COVID19 lethality.
Dr. Boston also says today’s coronavirus may be no worse than the 1957-1958 H2N2 flu pandemic that killed over 100,000 Americans.
One of the most striking features of covid19 disease is its overwhelmingly disproportionate lethality in those ≥ 65 years old, vs. those < 65. Stanford University Prevention Research Center’s Dr. John Ioannides, and colleagues, analyzed covid19 mortality data as of April 4, 2020 from European countries and U.S. states, or major cities, with at least 250 covid19 deaths (total deaths included=25,692). An analysis pooling data from New York City, Italy, and the Netherlands, for example, revealed that only 0.9% of all deaths occurred in those < 65, without known underlying co-morbidities. Given these findings and the more modest overall U.S. covid19 CFR based upon realistic population infection estimates (i.e., 0.13%), the CFR should be considerably lower still, in those < 65 years of age.
Ioannides et al proffered (on April 8, 2020) these increasingly evidence-validated, eminently rational recommendations for managing the covid19 pandemic going forward:
“If larger scale studies further document that the infection is very common and infection fatality rate is modest across the general population, the finding of very low risk in the vast majority of the general population has major implications for strategic next steps in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Tailored measures that maintain social life and the economy functional to avoid potentially even deaths from socioeconomic disruption plus effective protection of select high-risk individuals may be a sensible option.”
Unaccompanied by mass economic lockdowns, the 1957-58 H2N2 influenza A pandemic—equal, at least, in virulence and lethality to the current covid19 pandemic—had only a negligible effect on the U.S. GDP, within the range of ordinary economic variability.
The more we know the more it looks like the coronavirus from 2020 may be no worse than the