Well, it was going to happen sooner or later. The inconvenient truth about global warming and all the predictions surrounding the consensus that it is happening or is going to happen is that all of the unknowns are just…unknown. That which determines climate is not always predictable. That being the case, a new study tosses out the extremes of temperature change in the overall range of possibilities.
“Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities,” University of Exeter’s Peter Cox, the study’s lead author, said.
The U.N.’s worst-case predictions of an increase of 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 are almost certainly too high, Cox and his colleagues found. Rather than the widely variable range of 1.5 – 4.5 ºC (2.7 – 8.1 ºF) promoted by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the new study predicts much narrower change ranges of 2.2 – 3.4 ºC (4 – 6.1 ºF). The study’s best estimate is that global temperatures will change by 2.8 ºC (5 ºF) by 2100.
“If accurate, it precludes the most destructive doomsday scenarios,” AFP notes.
So, essentially, we are now between temperatures of the age of dinosaurs vs. a coming ice age as the planet Earth experiences every so many thousand years. That sort of thing, actually, is usually determined by solar activity or lack of it, but that doesn’t seem to matter to climate scientists who make their living scaring the bejeezus out of the populace.
This particular study should put the worst of the doomsday scenarios that are the lifeblood of science’s chicken littles to rest. It is comforting at the very least to know that someone out there in the realm of climate science is willing to admit that which everyone who watches the weather on the evening news knows.
As MIT atmospheric physician Richard Lindzen explains … all the variables, or “known unknowns,” make accurate predictions about the climate “impossible” — a reality the IPCC admitted in its 2007 report, which stated, “The long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
You don’t say.